This piece was originally published at The Lobbyist . You saw it here first (or second, or third (twelfth?)- the point is, you saw it here). Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) is going to lose on the public option, and it’s going to crush health care reform, his ability to effectively lead the Democratic caucus and possibly his already-tough reelection . Here’s what’s going on: On October 21, a delayed cloture vote on the so-called “Doc Fix” failed miserably in the Senate.

There’s a little dissonance in coverage of the NY-23 special election. Off the record, strategists claim that Conservative Party candidate Doug Hoffman is fighting it out for the lead with Democrat Bill Owens. But public polls still show Hoffman trailing. I double-checked with Markos Moulitsas on whether his Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll showed movement to Hoffman over any days of polling, reflecting the bad news for GOP candidate Dede Scozzafava.